I’ve seen so many traders calling the next reversal and probably loose their shirts over it. It’s especially difficult to resist the temptation to take a counter-trend trade when that particular market had only recently had a massive move in the direction you want to take. For example, since the 2008 stock market crash, I’ve seen traders continually call for the next big move because the market is “overvalued” or “the Fed this or the Fed that” or “Obama this and Trump that.” Yet, the trend just keeps on going. It will stop when we least expected. Only a few will be aware of it and folks will write books about them. In the meantime, lots of good trades are to be made in line with the trend. Guys that hit homers, rarely are successful in the month-to-month grind of “base-hits.”. Some of them don’t have to: their “homers” were good enough for a lifetime. If you are in trading for the long-haul, stick to hitting the ball and swing only when everything tells you should. Sometimes you’ll home-runs, most of the times you’ll make enough to stay in the game.